Saturday 21 November · 16:00 · 11th matchday
Tottenham Hotspur – Ipswich Town
Tottenham Hotspur
9th · attack 0.98 · defence 1.18
Ipswich Town
14th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.63
Our model makes Tottenham Hotspur favourites for Tottenham Hotspur – Ipswich Town, at 53%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Tottenham Hotspur win 53% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Ipswich Town win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.97 goals for Tottenham Hotspur and 1.28 for Ipswich Town, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time and both teams scoring 63%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.97 for Tottenham Hotspur, 1.28 for Ipswich Town.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Tottenham Hotspur wins; above it, Ipswich Town wins.
| Tottenham Hotspur \ Ipswich Town | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Tottenham Hotspur goals in rows, Ipswich Town goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town?
Tottenham Hotspur, at 53%. The full split is Tottenham Hotspur 53%, draw 23%, Ipswich Town 24%.
What is the most likely score in Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town?
1–1, which comes up in 10.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 1.97 for Tottenham Hotspur and 1.28 for Ipswich Town.
Will both teams score in Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town?
Both teams score in 63% of simulations. Tottenham Hotspur keep a clean sheet or Ipswich Town fail to score in the remaining 37%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
