Sunday 29 November · 15:05 · 12th matchday
Sunderland – Tottenham Hotspur
Sunderland
19th · attack 0.82 · defence 1.15
Tottenham Hotspur
11th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.15
Our model makes Sunderland favourites for Sunderland – Tottenham Hotspur, at 38% — but only 5.0% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 15:05.
Across the full score distribution, Sunderland win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 30% and Tottenham Hotspur win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.18 goals for Sunderland and 1.08 for Tottenham Hotspur, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.18 for Sunderland, 1.08 for Tottenham Hotspur.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sunderland wins; above it, Tottenham Hotspur wins.
| Sunderland \ Tottenham Hotspur | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Sunderland goals in rows, Tottenham Hotspur goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur?
Sunderland, at 38%. The full split is Sunderland 38%, draw 30%, Tottenham Hotspur 33%.
What is the most likely score in Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur?
1–1, which comes up in 13.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 67% of the time. Expected goals are 1.18 for Sunderland and 1.08 for Tottenham Hotspur.
Will both teams score in Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Sunderland keep a clean sheet or Tottenham Hotspur fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
