Sunday 8 November · 15:00 · 10th matchday
Sunderland – Chelsea
Sunderland
19th · attack 0.86 · defence 1.19
Chelsea
4th · attack 1.37 · defence 1.22
Our model makes Chelsea favourites for Sunderland – Chelsea, at 44%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Sunderland win 29% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Chelsea win 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.29 goals for Sunderland and 1.62 for Chelsea, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.29 for Sunderland, 1.62 for Chelsea.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sunderland wins; above it, Chelsea wins.
| Sunderland \ Chelsea | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Sunderland goals in rows, Chelsea goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sunderland v Chelsea?
Chelsea, at 44%. The full split is Sunderland 29%, draw 26%, Chelsea 44%.
What is the most likely score in Sunderland v Chelsea?
1–1, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sunderland v Chelsea?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.29 for Sunderland and 1.62 for Chelsea.
Will both teams score in Sunderland v Chelsea?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Sunderland keep a clean sheet or Chelsea fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
