Saturday 7 November · 18:30 · 10th matchday
Nottingham Forest – Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
17th · attack 0.98 · defence 1.10
Manchester City
1st · attack 1.60 · defence 0.84
Our model makes Manchester City favourites for Nottingham Forest – Manchester City, at 54%. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Nottingham Forest win 20% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Manchester City win 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.00 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.76 for Manchester City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.00 for Nottingham Forest, 1.76 for Manchester City.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Nottingham Forest wins; above it, Manchester City wins.
| Nottingham Forest \ Manchester City | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Nottingham Forest goals in rows, Manchester City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Nottingham Forest v Manchester City?
Manchester City, at 54%. The full split is Nottingham Forest 20%, draw 25%, Manchester City 54%.
What is the most likely score in Nottingham Forest v Manchester City?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nottingham Forest v Manchester City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.00 for Nottingham Forest and 1.76 for Manchester City.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest v Manchester City?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet or Manchester City fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 18 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
