Saturday 21 November · 18:30 · 11th matchday
Newcastle United – Arsenal
Newcastle United
13th · attack 1.12 · defence 1.26
Arsenal
1st · attack 1.34 · defence 0.62
Our model makes Arsenal favourites for Newcastle United – Arsenal, at 56%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Newcastle United win 18% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Arsenal win 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 0.87 goals for Newcastle United and 1.70 for Arsenal, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 0.87 for Newcastle United, 1.70 for Arsenal.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Newcastle United wins; above it, Arsenal wins.
| Newcastle United \ Arsenal | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Newcastle United goals in rows, Arsenal goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Newcastle United v Arsenal?
Arsenal, at 56%. The full split is Newcastle United 18%, draw 26%, Arsenal 56%.
What is the most likely score in Newcastle United v Arsenal?
0–1, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Newcastle United v Arsenal?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 0.87 for Newcastle United and 1.70 for Arsenal.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United v Arsenal?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Newcastle United keep a clean sheet or Arsenal fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
