Saturday 28 November · 16:00 · 12th matchday
Manchester United – Brentford
Manchester United
18th · attack 1.24 · defence 1.23
Brentford
8th · attack 1.19 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Manchester United favourites for Manchester United – Brentford, at 41%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Manchester United win 41% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Brentford win 34%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.64 goals for Manchester United and 1.47 for Brentford, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time and both teams scoring 63%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.64 for Manchester United, 1.47 for Brentford.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Manchester United wins; above it, Brentford wins.
| Manchester United \ Brentford | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Manchester United goals in rows, Brentford goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Manchester United v Brentford?
Manchester United, at 41%. The full split is Manchester United 41%, draw 25%, Brentford 34%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester United v Brentford?
1–1, which comes up in 11.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Manchester United v Brentford?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.64 for Manchester United and 1.47 for Brentford.
Will both teams score in Manchester United v Brentford?
Both teams score in 63% of simulations. Manchester United keep a clean sheet or Brentford fail to score in the remaining 37%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
