Sunday 8 November · 17:30 · 10th matchday
Manchester United – Aston Villa
Manchester United
13th · attack 1.25 · defence 1.10
Aston Villa
12th · attack 1.12 · defence 1.13
Our model makes Manchester United favourites for Manchester United – Aston Villa, at 48%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 17:30.
Across the full score distribution, Manchester United win 48% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Aston Villa win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.73 goals for Manchester United and 1.23 for Aston Villa, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.73 for Manchester United, 1.23 for Aston Villa.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Manchester United wins; above it, Aston Villa wins.
| Manchester United \ Aston Villa | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Manchester United goals in rows, Aston Villa goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Manchester United v Aston Villa?
Manchester United, at 48%. The full split is Manchester United 48%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 26%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester United v Aston Villa?
1–1, which comes up in 12.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Manchester United v Aston Villa?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.73 for Manchester United and 1.23 for Aston Villa.
Will both teams score in Manchester United v Aston Villa?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Manchester United keep a clean sheet or Aston Villa fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
