Saturday 21 November · 13:30 · 11th matchday
Manchester City – Fulham
Manchester City
2nd · attack 1.52 · defence 0.86
Fulham
15th · attack 0.89 · defence 1.06
Our model makes Manchester City favourites for Manchester City – Fulham, at 66%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 13:30.
Across the full score distribution, Manchester City win 66% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Fulham win 13%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 12.6% of simulations.
We expect 2.00 goals for Manchester City and 0.77 for Fulham, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.00 for Manchester City, 0.77 for Fulham.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Manchester City wins; above it, Fulham wins.
| Manchester City \ Fulham | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| 6 | 1 |
Manchester City goals in rows, Fulham goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Manchester City v Fulham?
Manchester City, at 66%. The full split is Manchester City 66%, draw 22%, Fulham 13%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester City v Fulham?
2–0, which comes up in 12.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Manchester City v Fulham?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 2.00 for Manchester City and 0.77 for Fulham.
Will both teams score in Manchester City v Fulham?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Manchester City keep a clean sheet or Fulham fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
