Saturday 7 November · 13:30 · 10th matchday
Leeds United – Tottenham Hotspur
Leeds United
8th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.01
Tottenham Hotspur
20th · attack 0.89 · defence 1.27
Our model makes Leeds United favourites for Leeds United – Tottenham Hotspur, at 53%. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 13:30.
Across the full score distribution, Leeds United win 53% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Tottenham Hotspur win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.60 goals for Leeds United and 0.91 for Tottenham Hotspur, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 49%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.60 for Leeds United, 0.91 for Tottenham Hotspur.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Leeds United wins; above it, Tottenham Hotspur wins.
| Leeds United \ Tottenham Hotspur | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Leeds United goals in rows, Tottenham Hotspur goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur?
Leeds United, at 53%. The full split is Leeds United 53%, draw 27%, Tottenham Hotspur 20%.
What is the most likely score in Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur?
1–1, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.60 for Leeds United and 0.91 for Tottenham Hotspur.
Will both teams score in Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur?
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. Leeds United keep a clean sheet or Tottenham Hotspur fail to score in the remaining 51%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 18 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
