Saturday 28 November · 16:00 · 12th matchday
Leeds United – Coventry City
Leeds United
9th · attack 0.93 · defence 0.95
Coventry City
17th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.47
Our model makes Leeds United favourites for Leeds United – Coventry City, at 57%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Leeds United win 57% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Coventry City win 18%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.72 goals for Leeds United and 0.88 for Coventry City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.72 for Leeds United, 0.88 for Coventry City.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Leeds United wins; above it, Coventry City wins.
| Leeds United \ Coventry City | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Leeds United goals in rows, Coventry City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Leeds United v Coventry City?
Leeds United, at 57%. The full split is Leeds United 57%, draw 25%, Coventry City 18%.
What is the most likely score in Leeds United v Coventry City?
1–0, which comes up in 12.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Leeds United v Coventry City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.72 for Leeds United and 0.88 for Coventry City.
Will both teams score in Leeds United v Coventry City?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Leeds United keep a clean sheet or Coventry City fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
