Saturday 28 November · 18:30 · 12th matchday
Ipswich Town – Aston Villa
Ipswich Town
14th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.60
Aston Villa
10th · attack 1.23 · defence 1.18
Our model makes Aston Villa favourites for Ipswich Town – Aston Villa, at 47%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Ipswich Town win 31% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Aston Villa win 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.58 goals for Ipswich Town and 1.97 for Aston Villa, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time and both teams scoring 69%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.58 for Ipswich Town, 1.97 for Aston Villa.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Ipswich Town wins; above it, Aston Villa wins.
| Ipswich Town \ Aston Villa | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Ipswich Town goals in rows, Aston Villa goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Ipswich Town v Aston Villa?
Aston Villa, at 47%. The full split is Ipswich Town 31%, draw 23%, Aston Villa 47%.
What is the most likely score in Ipswich Town v Aston Villa?
1–1, which comes up in 9.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ipswich Town v Aston Villa?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 87% of the time. Expected goals are 1.58 for Ipswich Town and 1.97 for Aston Villa.
Will both teams score in Ipswich Town v Aston Villa?
Both teams score in 69% of simulations. Ipswich Town keep a clean sheet or Aston Villa fail to score in the remaining 31%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
