Sunday 8 November · 15:00 · 10th matchday
Ipswich Town – AFC Bournemouth
Ipswich Town
10th · attack 1.06 · defence 1.62
AFC Bournemouth
15th · attack 1.13 · defence 1.17
Our model makes AFC Bournemouth favourites for Ipswich Town – AFC Bournemouth, at 44%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Ipswich Town win 32% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and AFC Bournemouth win 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.53 goals for Ipswich Town and 1.82 for AFC Bournemouth, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time and both teams scoring 67%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.53 for Ipswich Town, 1.82 for AFC Bournemouth.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Ipswich Town wins; above it, AFC Bournemouth wins.
| Ipswich Town \ AFC Bournemouth | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Ipswich Town goals in rows, AFC Bournemouth goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Ipswich Town v AFC Bournemouth?
AFC Bournemouth, at 44%. The full split is Ipswich Town 32%, draw 24%, AFC Bournemouth 44%.
What is the most likely score in Ipswich Town v AFC Bournemouth?
1–1, which comes up in 10.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ipswich Town v AFC Bournemouth?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 86% of the time. Expected goals are 1.53 for Ipswich Town and 1.82 for AFC Bournemouth.
Will both teams score in Ipswich Town v AFC Bournemouth?
Both teams score in 67% of simulations. Ipswich Town keep a clean sheet or AFC Bournemouth fail to score in the remaining 33%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
