Saturday 7 November · 16:00 · 10th matchday
Fulham – Newcastle United
Fulham
16th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.11
Newcastle United
11th · attack 1.15 · defence 1.33
Our model makes Fulham favourites for Fulham – Newcastle United, at 40%. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Fulham win 40% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Newcastle United win 32%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.46 goals for Fulham and 1.27 for Newcastle United, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.46 for Fulham, 1.27 for Newcastle United.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Fulham wins; above it, Newcastle United wins.
| Fulham \ Newcastle United | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Fulham goals in rows, Newcastle United goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Fulham v Newcastle United?
Fulham, at 40%. The full split is Fulham 40%, draw 28%, Newcastle United 32%.
What is the most likely score in Fulham v Newcastle United?
1–1, which comes up in 13.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fulham v Newcastle United?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.46 for Fulham and 1.27 for Newcastle United.
Will both teams score in Fulham v Newcastle United?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Fulham keep a clean sheet or Newcastle United fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 18 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
