Sunday 29 November · 15:05 · 12th matchday
Fulham – AFC Bournemouth
Fulham
15th · attack 0.88 · defence 1.04
AFC Bournemouth
7th · attack 1.20 · defence 1.07
Our model makes AFC Bournemouth favourites for Fulham – AFC Bournemouth, at 37% — but only 2.2% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 15:05.
Across the full score distribution, Fulham win 35% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and AFC Bournemouth win 37%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.20 goals for Fulham and 1.24 for AFC Bournemouth, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.20 for Fulham, 1.24 for AFC Bournemouth.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Fulham wins; above it, AFC Bournemouth wins.
| Fulham \ AFC Bournemouth | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Fulham goals in rows, AFC Bournemouth goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Fulham v AFC Bournemouth?
AFC Bournemouth, at 37%. The full split is Fulham 35%, draw 29%, AFC Bournemouth 37%.
What is the most likely score in Fulham v AFC Bournemouth?
1–1, which comes up in 13.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fulham v AFC Bournemouth?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.20 for Fulham and 1.24 for AFC Bournemouth.
Will both teams score in Fulham v AFC Bournemouth?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Fulham keep a clean sheet or AFC Bournemouth fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
