Sunday 29 November · 13:00 · 12th matchday
Everton – Liverpool
Everton
6th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.00
Liverpool
4th · attack 1.30 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Liverpool favourites for Everton – Liverpool, at 39%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 13:00.
Across the full score distribution, Everton win 33% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Liverpool win 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.18 goals for Everton and 1.30 for Liverpool, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.18 for Everton, 1.30 for Liverpool.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Everton wins; above it, Liverpool wins.
| Everton \ Liverpool | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Everton goals in rows, Liverpool goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Everton v Liverpool?
Liverpool, at 39%. The full split is Everton 33%, draw 28%, Liverpool 39%.
What is the most likely score in Everton v Liverpool?
1–1, which comes up in 13.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Everton v Liverpool?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.18 for Everton and 1.30 for Liverpool.
Will both teams score in Everton v Liverpool?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Everton keep a clean sheet or Liverpool fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
