Friday 6 November · 21:00 · 10th matchday
Everton – Coventry City
Everton
5th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.02
Coventry City
14th · attack 0.75 · defence 1.37
Our model makes Everton favourites for Everton – Coventry City, at 57%. Kick-off 6 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Everton win 57% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Coventry City win 16%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 13.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.62 goals for Everton and 0.76 for Coventry City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.62 for Everton, 0.76 for Coventry City.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Everton wins; above it, Coventry City wins.
| Everton \ Coventry City | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Everton goals in rows, Coventry City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Everton v Coventry City?
Everton, at 57%. The full split is Everton 57%, draw 27%, Coventry City 16%.
What is the most likely score in Everton v Coventry City?
1–0, which comes up in 13.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Everton v Coventry City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 70% of the time. Expected goals are 1.62 for Everton and 0.76 for Coventry City.
Will both teams score in Everton v Coventry City?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Everton keep a clean sheet or Coventry City fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
