Sunday 8 November · 15:00 · 10th matchday
Crystal Palace – Liverpool
Crystal Palace
14th · attack 0.97 · defence 1.35
Liverpool
5th · attack 1.28 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Liverpool favourites for Crystal Palace – Liverpool, at 47%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Crystal Palace win 27% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Liverpool win 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.26 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.72 for Liverpool, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.26 for Crystal Palace, 1.72 for Liverpool.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Crystal Palace wins; above it, Liverpool wins.
| Crystal Palace \ Liverpool | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Crystal Palace goals in rows, Liverpool goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Crystal Palace v Liverpool?
Liverpool, at 47%. The full split is Crystal Palace 27%, draw 26%, Liverpool 47%.
What is the most likely score in Crystal Palace v Liverpool?
1–1, which comes up in 12.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Crystal Palace v Liverpool?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.26 for Crystal Palace and 1.72 for Liverpool.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace v Liverpool?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet or Liverpool fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
