Sunday 29 November · 15:05 · 12th matchday
Crystal Palace – Hull City
Crystal Palace
20th · attack 0.89 · defence 1.41
Hull City
13th · attack 0.85 · defence 0.94
Our model makes Hull City favourites for Crystal Palace – Hull City, at 39%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 15:05.
Across the full score distribution, Crystal Palace win 32% of the time, the draw comes up 30% and Hull City win 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.06 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.20 for Hull City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.06 for Crystal Palace, 1.20 for Hull City.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Crystal Palace wins; above it, Hull City wins.
| Crystal Palace \ Hull City | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Crystal Palace goals in rows, Hull City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Crystal Palace v Hull City?
Hull City, at 39%. The full split is Crystal Palace 32%, draw 30%, Hull City 39%.
What is the most likely score in Crystal Palace v Hull City?
1–1, which comes up in 13.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Crystal Palace v Hull City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 67% of the time. Expected goals are 1.06 for Crystal Palace and 1.20 for Hull City.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace v Hull City?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet or Hull City fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
