Tuesday 1 December · 21:00 · 13th matchday
Coventry City – Ipswich Town
Coventry City
17th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.47
Ipswich Town
14th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.60
Our model makes Coventry City favourites for Coventry City – Ipswich Town, at 45%. Kick-off 1 December 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Coventry City win 45% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Ipswich Town win 32%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.87 goals for Coventry City and 1.57 for Ipswich Town, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 67% of the time and both teams scoring 67%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.87 for Coventry City, 1.57 for Ipswich Town.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Coventry City wins; above it, Ipswich Town wins.
| Coventry City \ Ipswich Town | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Coventry City goals in rows, Ipswich Town goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Coventry City v Ipswich Town?
Coventry City, at 45%. The full split is Coventry City 45%, draw 23%, Ipswich Town 32%.
What is the most likely score in Coventry City v Ipswich Town?
1–1, which comes up in 9.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Coventry City v Ipswich Town?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 67% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 86% of the time. Expected goals are 1.87 for Coventry City and 1.57 for Ipswich Town.
Will both teams score in Coventry City v Ipswich Town?
Both teams score in 67% of simulations. Coventry City keep a clean sheet or Ipswich Town fail to score in the remaining 33%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
