Saturday 21 November · 16:00 · 11th matchday
Coventry City – Crystal Palace
Coventry City
16th · attack 0.83 · defence 1.48
Crystal Palace
18th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.38
Our model makes Coventry City favourites for Coventry City – Crystal Palace, at 38% — but only 4.1% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Coventry City win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Crystal Palace win 34%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.42 goals for Coventry City and 1.33 for Crystal Palace, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.42 for Coventry City, 1.33 for Crystal Palace.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Coventry City wins; above it, Crystal Palace wins.
| Coventry City \ Crystal Palace | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Coventry City goals in rows, Crystal Palace goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Coventry City v Crystal Palace?
Coventry City, at 38%. The full split is Coventry City 38%, draw 27%, Crystal Palace 34%.
What is the most likely score in Coventry City v Crystal Palace?
1–1, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Coventry City v Crystal Palace?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.42 for Coventry City and 1.33 for Crystal Palace.
Will both teams score in Coventry City v Crystal Palace?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Coventry City keep a clean sheet or Crystal Palace fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
