Saturday 21 November · 16:00 · 11th matchday
Chelsea – Leeds United
Chelsea
4th · attack 1.32 · defence 1.20
Leeds United
12th · attack 0.95 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Chelsea favourites for Chelsea – Leeds United, at 48%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Chelsea win 48% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Leeds United win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.63 goals for Chelsea and 1.14 for Leeds United, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.63 for Chelsea, 1.14 for Leeds United.
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Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Chelsea wins; above it, Leeds United wins.
| Chelsea \ Leeds United | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Chelsea goals in rows, Leeds United goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Chelsea v Leeds United?
Chelsea, at 48%. The full split is Chelsea 48%, draw 26%, Leeds United 26%.
What is the most likely score in Chelsea v Leeds United?
1–1, which comes up in 12.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Chelsea v Leeds United?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.63 for Chelsea and 1.14 for Leeds United.
Will both teams score in Chelsea v Leeds United?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Chelsea keep a clean sheet or Leeds United fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
