Sunday 29 November · 15:05 · 12th matchday
Brighton & Hove Albion – Newcastle United
Brighton & Hove Albion
2nd · attack 1.39 · defence 0.88
Newcastle United
12th · attack 1.12 · defence 1.23
Our model makes Brighton & Hove Albion favourites for Brighton & Hove Albion – Newcastle United, at 64%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 15:05.
Across the full score distribution, Brighton & Hove Albion win 64% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Newcastle United win 16%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 10.0% of simulations.
We expect 2.17 goals for Brighton & Hove Albion and 0.99 for Newcastle United, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 2.17 for Brighton & Hove Albion, 0.99 for Newcastle United.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Brighton & Hove Albion wins; above it, Newcastle United wins.
| Brighton & Hove Albion \ Newcastle United | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Brighton & Hove Albion goals in rows, Newcastle United goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Brighton & Hove Albion v Newcastle United?
Brighton & Hove Albion, at 64%. The full split is Brighton & Hove Albion 64%, draw 20%, Newcastle United 16%.
What is the most likely score in Brighton & Hove Albion v Newcastle United?
2–0, which comes up in 10.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brighton & Hove Albion v Newcastle United?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 2.17 for Brighton & Hove Albion and 0.99 for Newcastle United.
Will both teams score in Brighton & Hove Albion v Newcastle United?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Brighton & Hove Albion keep a clean sheet or Newcastle United fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
