Sunday 8 November · 15:00 · 10th matchday
Brighton & Hove Albion – Brentford
Brighton & Hove Albion
3rd · attack 1.44 · defence 0.96
Brentford
6th · attack 1.21 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Brighton & Hove Albion favourites for Brighton & Hove Albion – Brentford, at 55%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Brighton & Hove Albion win 55% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Brentford win 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.95 goals for Brighton & Hove Albion and 1.16 for Brentford, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.95 for Brighton & Hove Albion, 1.16 for Brentford.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Brighton & Hove Albion wins; above it, Brentford wins.
| Brighton & Hove Albion \ Brentford | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Brighton & Hove Albion goals in rows, Brentford goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Brighton & Hove Albion v Brentford?
Brighton & Hove Albion, at 55%. The full split is Brighton & Hove Albion 55%, draw 24%, Brentford 22%.
What is the most likely score in Brighton & Hove Albion v Brentford?
1–1, which comes up in 11.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brighton & Hove Albion v Brentford?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 1.95 for Brighton & Hove Albion and 1.16 for Brentford.
Will both teams score in Brighton & Hove Albion v Brentford?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Brighton & Hove Albion keep a clean sheet or Brentford fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
