Saturday 21 November · 16:00 · 11th matchday
Aston Villa – Sunderland
Aston Villa
10th · attack 1.15 · defence 1.11
Sunderland
20th · attack 0.83 · defence 1.22
Our model makes Aston Villa favourites for Aston Villa – Sunderland, at 56%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Aston Villa win 56% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Sunderland win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.73 goals for Aston Villa and 0.92 for Sunderland, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.73 for Aston Villa, 0.92 for Sunderland.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Aston Villa wins; above it, Sunderland wins.
| Aston Villa \ Sunderland | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Aston Villa goals in rows, Sunderland goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Aston Villa v Sunderland?
Aston Villa, at 56%. The full split is Aston Villa 56%, draw 25%, Sunderland 19%.
What is the most likely score in Aston Villa v Sunderland?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Aston Villa v Sunderland?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.73 for Aston Villa and 0.92 for Sunderland.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa v Sunderland?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet or Sunderland fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
