Sunday 29 November · 17:30 · 12th matchday
Arsenal – Manchester City
Arsenal
1st · attack 1.32 · defence 0.61
Manchester City
3rd · attack 1.50 · defence 0.90
Our model makes Arsenal favourites for Arsenal – Manchester City, at 51%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 17:30.
Across the full score distribution, Arsenal win 51% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Manchester City win 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.51 goals for Arsenal and 0.91 for Manchester City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.51 for Arsenal, 0.91 for Manchester City.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Arsenal wins; above it, Manchester City wins.
| Arsenal \ Manchester City | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Arsenal goals in rows, Manchester City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Arsenal v Manchester City?
Arsenal, at 51%. The full split is Arsenal 51%, draw 27%, Manchester City 22%.
What is the most likely score in Arsenal v Manchester City?
1–0, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Arsenal v Manchester City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 70% of the time. Expected goals are 1.51 for Arsenal and 0.91 for Manchester City.
Will both teams score in Arsenal v Manchester City?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Arsenal keep a clean sheet or Manchester City fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
