Saturday 7 November · 16:00 · 10th matchday
Arsenal – Hull City
Arsenal
2nd · attack 1.35 · defence 0.70
Hull City
9th · attack 0.82 · defence 1.07
Our model makes Arsenal favourites for Arsenal – Hull City, at 65%. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Arsenal win 65% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Hull City win 11%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 16.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.75 goals for Arsenal and 0.57 for Hull City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time and both teams scoring 37%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.75 for Arsenal, 0.57 for Hull City.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Arsenal wins; above it, Hull City wins.
| Arsenal \ Hull City | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | 9 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Arsenal goals in rows, Hull City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Arsenal v Hull City?
Arsenal, at 65%. The full split is Arsenal 65%, draw 24%, Hull City 11%.
What is the most likely score in Arsenal v Hull City?
1–0, which comes up in 16.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Arsenal v Hull City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 68% of the time. Expected goals are 1.75 for Arsenal and 0.57 for Hull City.
Will both teams score in Arsenal v Hull City?
Both teams score in 37% of simulations. Arsenal keep a clean sheet or Hull City fail to score in the remaining 63%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 18 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
