Saturday 21 November · 16:00 · 11th matchday
AFC Bournemouth – Nottingham Forest
AFC Bournemouth
8th · attack 1.20 · defence 1.10
Nottingham Forest
19th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.08
Our model makes AFC Bournemouth favourites for AFC Bournemouth – Nottingham Forest, at 50%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, AFC Bournemouth win 50% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Nottingham Forest win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.61 goals for AFC Bournemouth and 1.01 for Nottingham Forest, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.61 for AFC Bournemouth, 1.01 for Nottingham Forest.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, AFC Bournemouth wins; above it, Nottingham Forest wins.
| AFC Bournemouth \ Nottingham Forest | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
AFC Bournemouth goals in rows, Nottingham Forest goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest?
AFC Bournemouth, at 50%. The full split is AFC Bournemouth 50%, draw 27%, Nottingham Forest 23%.
What is the most likely score in AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest?
1–1, which comes up in 12.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.61 for AFC Bournemouth and 1.01 for Nottingham Forest.
Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. AFC Bournemouth keep a clean sheet or Nottingham Forest fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
