Friday 20 November · 20:45 · 11th matchday
Troyes – Le Havre
Troyes
16th · attack 0.82 · defence 1.37
Le Havre
18th · attack 0.85 · defence 1.26
Our model makes Troyes favourites for Troyes – Le Havre, at 38% — but only 5.0% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 20 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Troyes win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Le Havre win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.27 goals for Troyes and 1.17 for Le Havre, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.27 for Troyes, 1.17 for Le Havre.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Troyes wins; above it, Le Havre wins.
| Troyes \ Le Havre | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Troyes goals in rows, Le Havre goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Troyes v Le Havre?
Troyes, at 38%. The full split is Troyes 38%, draw 29%, Le Havre 33%.
What is the most likely score in Troyes v Le Havre?
1–1, which comes up in 13.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Troyes v Le Havre?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.27 for Troyes and 1.17 for Le Havre.
Will both teams score in Troyes v Le Havre?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Troyes keep a clean sheet or Le Havre fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
