Sunday 29 November · 17:15 · 12th matchday
Toulouse – Rennes
Toulouse
12th · attack 1.06 · defence 1.10
Rennes
8th · attack 1.34 · defence 1.13
Our model makes Rennes favourites for Toulouse – Rennes, at 37% — but only 0.3% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 17:15.
Across the full score distribution, Toulouse win 37% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Rennes win 37%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.47 goals for Toulouse and 1.48 for Rennes, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.47 for Toulouse, 1.48 for Rennes.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Toulouse wins; above it, Rennes wins.
| Toulouse \ Rennes | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Toulouse goals in rows, Rennes goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Toulouse v Rennes?
Rennes, at 37%. The full split is Toulouse 37%, draw 26%, Rennes 37%.
What is the most likely score in Toulouse v Rennes?
1–1, which comes up in 11.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Toulouse v Rennes?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.47 for Toulouse and 1.48 for Rennes.
Will both teams score in Toulouse v Rennes?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Toulouse keep a clean sheet or Rennes fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
