Saturday 21 November · 20:45 · 11th matchday
Strasbourg – Brest
Strasbourg
13th · attack 1.22 · defence 1.15
Brest
10th · attack 1.11 · defence 1.20
Our model makes Strasbourg favourites for Strasbourg – Brest, at 49%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Strasbourg win 49% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Brest win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.80 goals for Strasbourg and 1.27 for Brest, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 61%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.80 for Strasbourg, 1.27 for Brest.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Strasbourg wins; above it, Brest wins.
| Strasbourg \ Brest | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Strasbourg goals in rows, Brest goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Strasbourg v Brest?
Strasbourg, at 49%. The full split is Strasbourg 49%, draw 24%, Brest 27%.
What is the most likely score in Strasbourg v Brest?
1–1, which comes up in 11.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Strasbourg v Brest?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.80 for Strasbourg and 1.27 for Brest.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg v Brest?
Both teams score in 61% of simulations. Strasbourg keep a clean sheet or Brest fail to score in the remaining 39%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
