Sunday 8 November · 15:00 · 10th matchday
Rennes – LOSC Lille
Rennes
6th · attack 1.33 · defence 1.11
LOSC Lille
4th · attack 1.16 · defence 0.85
Our model makes Rennes favourites for Rennes – LOSC Lille, at 39% — but only 4.7% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Rennes win 39% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and LOSC Lille win 34%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.39 goals for Rennes and 1.29 for LOSC Lille, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.39 for Rennes, 1.29 for LOSC Lille.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Rennes wins; above it, LOSC Lille wins.
| Rennes \ LOSC Lille | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Rennes goals in rows, LOSC Lille goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Rennes v LOSC Lille?
Rennes, at 39%. The full split is Rennes 39%, draw 27%, LOSC Lille 34%.
What is the most likely score in Rennes v LOSC Lille?
1–1, which comes up in 12.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rennes v LOSC Lille?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.39 for Rennes and 1.29 for LOSC Lille.
Will both teams score in Rennes v LOSC Lille?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Rennes keep a clean sheet or LOSC Lille fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
