Saturday 28 November · 20:45 · 12th matchday
Paris Saint Germain – Lorient
Paris Saint Germain
1st · attack 1.79 · defence 0.81
Lorient
10th · attack 0.99 · defence 1.19
Our model makes Paris Saint Germain favourites for Paris Saint Germain – Lorient, at 76%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Paris Saint Germain win 76% of the time, the draw comes up 15% and Lorient win 9%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 11.2% of simulations.
We expect 2.62 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.80 for Lorient, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.62 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.80 for Lorient.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Paris Saint Germain wins; above it, Lorient wins.
| Paris Saint Germain \ Lorient | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Paris Saint Germain goals in rows, Lorient goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Paris Saint Germain v Lorient?
Paris Saint Germain, at 76%. The full split is Paris Saint Germain 76%, draw 15%, Lorient 9%.
What is the most likely score in Paris Saint Germain v Lorient?
2–0, which comes up in 11.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paris Saint Germain v Lorient?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 86% of the time. Expected goals are 2.62 for Paris Saint Germain and 0.80 for Lorient.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain v Lorient?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet or Lorient fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
