Sunday 29 November · 20:45 · 12th matchday
Olympique Lyonnais – Monaco
Olympique Lyonnais
5th · attack 1.31 · defence 1.03
Monaco
7th · attack 1.39 · defence 1.07
Our model makes Olympique Lyonnais favourites for Olympique Lyonnais – Monaco, at 45%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Olympique Lyonnais win 45% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Monaco win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.74 goals for Olympique Lyonnais and 1.42 for Monaco, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 63%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.74 for Olympique Lyonnais, 1.42 for Monaco.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Olympique Lyonnais wins; above it, Monaco wins.
| Olympique Lyonnais \ Monaco | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Olympique Lyonnais goals in rows, Monaco goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Olympique Lyonnais v Monaco?
Olympique Lyonnais, at 45%. The full split is Olympique Lyonnais 45%, draw 24%, Monaco 31%.
What is the most likely score in Olympique Lyonnais v Monaco?
1–1, which comes up in 11.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Olympique Lyonnais v Monaco?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 1.74 for Olympique Lyonnais and 1.42 for Monaco.
Will both teams score in Olympique Lyonnais v Monaco?
Both teams score in 63% of simulations. Olympique Lyonnais keep a clean sheet or Monaco fail to score in the remaining 37%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
