Saturday 28 November · 20:45 · 12th matchday
Nice – Troyes
Nice
6th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.04
Troyes
17th · attack 0.80 · defence 1.32
Our model makes Nice favourites for Nice – Troyes, at 58%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Nice win 58% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Troyes win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.75 goals for Nice and 0.83 for Troyes, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.75 for Nice, 0.83 for Troyes.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Nice wins; above it, Troyes wins.
| Nice \ Troyes | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Nice goals in rows, Troyes goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Nice v Troyes?
Nice, at 58%. The full split is Nice 58%, draw 24%, Troyes 17%.
What is the most likely score in Nice v Troyes?
1–0, which comes up in 12.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nice v Troyes?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.75 for Nice and 0.83 for Troyes.
Will both teams score in Nice v Troyes?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Nice keep a clean sheet or Troyes fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
