Saturday 21 November · 17:15 · 11th matchday
Nice – Paris Saint Germain
Nice
8th · attack 1.06 · defence 1.04
Paris Saint Germain
1st · attack 1.80 · defence 0.81
Our model makes Paris Saint Germain favourites for Nice – Paris Saint Germain, at 56%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 17:15.
Across the full score distribution, Nice win 21% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Paris Saint Germain win 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.07 goals for Nice and 1.88 for Paris Saint Germain, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.07 for Nice, 1.88 for Paris Saint Germain.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Nice wins; above it, Paris Saint Germain wins.
| Nice \ Paris Saint Germain | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Nice goals in rows, Paris Saint Germain goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Nice v Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain, at 56%. The full split is Nice 21%, draw 23%, Paris Saint Germain 56%.
What is the most likely score in Nice v Paris Saint Germain?
1–1, which comes up in 11.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nice v Paris Saint Germain?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.07 for Nice and 1.88 for Paris Saint Germain.
Will both teams score in Nice v Paris Saint Germain?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Nice keep a clean sheet or Paris Saint Germain fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
