Saturday 21 November · 20:45 · 11th matchday
Monaco – Auxerre
Monaco
7th · attack 1.39 · defence 1.07
Auxerre
14th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.23
Our model makes Monaco favourites for Monaco – Auxerre, at 62%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Monaco win 62% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Auxerre win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.9% of simulations.
We expect 2.11 goals for Monaco and 1.01 for Auxerre, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.11 for Monaco, 1.01 for Auxerre.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Monaco wins; above it, Auxerre wins.
| Monaco \ Auxerre | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Monaco goals in rows, Auxerre goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Monaco v Auxerre?
Monaco, at 62%. The full split is Monaco 62%, draw 21%, Auxerre 17%.
What is the most likely score in Monaco v Auxerre?
2–1, which comes up in 9.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Monaco v Auxerre?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 2.11 for Monaco and 1.01 for Auxerre.
Will both teams score in Monaco v Auxerre?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Monaco keep a clean sheet or Auxerre fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
