Saturday 21 November · 20:45 · 11th matchday
LOSC Lille – Olympique Lyonnais
LOSC Lille
2nd · attack 1.16 · defence 0.83
Olympique Lyonnais
3rd · attack 1.33 · defence 1.02
Our model makes LOSC Lille favourites for LOSC Lille – Olympique Lyonnais, at 45%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, LOSC Lille win 45% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Olympique Lyonnais win 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.46 goals for LOSC Lille and 1.11 for Olympique Lyonnais, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.46 for LOSC Lille, 1.11 for Olympique Lyonnais.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, LOSC Lille wins; above it, Olympique Lyonnais wins.
| LOSC Lille \ Olympique Lyonnais | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
LOSC Lille goals in rows, Olympique Lyonnais goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in LOSC Lille v Olympique Lyonnais?
LOSC Lille, at 45%. The full split is LOSC Lille 45%, draw 27%, Olympique Lyonnais 28%.
What is the most likely score in LOSC Lille v Olympique Lyonnais?
1–1, which comes up in 13.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in LOSC Lille v Olympique Lyonnais?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.46 for LOSC Lille and 1.11 for Olympique Lyonnais.
Will both teams score in LOSC Lille v Olympique Lyonnais?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. LOSC Lille keep a clean sheet or Olympique Lyonnais fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
