Saturday 21 November · 20:45 · 11th matchday
Lens – Toulouse
Lens
9th · attack 1.26 · defence 0.92
Toulouse
12th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.10
Our model makes Lens favourites for Lens – Toulouse, at 55%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Lens win 55% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Toulouse win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.72 goals for Lens and 0.95 for Toulouse, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.72 for Lens, 0.95 for Toulouse.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lens wins; above it, Toulouse wins.
| Lens \ Toulouse | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Lens goals in rows, Toulouse goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lens v Toulouse?
Lens, at 55%. The full split is Lens 55%, draw 25%, Toulouse 20%.
What is the most likely score in Lens v Toulouse?
1–1, which comes up in 11.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lens v Toulouse?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.72 for Lens and 0.95 for Toulouse.
Will both teams score in Lens v Toulouse?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Lens keep a clean sheet or Toulouse fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
