Sunday 8 November · 20:45 · 10th matchday
Lens – Olympique Marseille
Lens
8th · attack 1.26 · defence 0.92
Olympique Marseille
9th · attack 1.40 · defence 1.03
Our model makes Lens favourites for Lens – Olympique Marseille, at 44%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Lens win 44% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Olympique Marseille win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.59 goals for Lens and 1.29 for Olympique Marseille, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.59 for Lens, 1.29 for Olympique Marseille.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lens wins; above it, Olympique Marseille wins.
| Lens \ Olympique Marseille | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Lens goals in rows, Olympique Marseille goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lens v Olympique Marseille?
Lens, at 44%. The full split is Lens 44%, draw 26%, Olympique Marseille 31%.
What is the most likely score in Lens v Olympique Marseille?
1–1, which comes up in 12.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lens v Olympique Marseille?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.59 for Lens and 1.29 for Olympique Marseille.
Will both teams score in Lens v Olympique Marseille?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Lens keep a clean sheet or Olympique Marseille fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
