Sunday 8 November · 17:15 · 10th matchday
Le Mans – Monaco
Le Mans
16th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.56
Monaco
5th · attack 1.40 · defence 1.07
Our model makes Monaco favourites for Le Mans – Monaco, at 59%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 17:15.
Across the full score distribution, Le Mans win 20% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Monaco win 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 9.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.22 goals for Le Mans and 2.18 for Monaco, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time and both teams scoring 63%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.22 for Le Mans, 2.18 for Monaco.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Le Mans wins; above it, Monaco wins.
| Le Mans \ Monaco | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Le Mans goals in rows, Monaco goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Le Mans v Monaco?
Monaco, at 59%. The full split is Le Mans 20%, draw 21%, Monaco 59%.
What is the most likely score in Le Mans v Monaco?
1–2, which comes up in 9.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Le Mans v Monaco?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 86% of the time. Expected goals are 1.22 for Le Mans and 2.18 for Monaco.
Will both teams score in Le Mans v Monaco?
Both teams score in 63% of simulations. Le Mans keep a clean sheet or Monaco fail to score in the remaining 37%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
