Saturday 28 November · 20:45 · 12th matchday
Le Mans – LOSC Lille
Le Mans
15th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.30
LOSC Lille
2nd · attack 1.16 · defence 0.83
Our model makes LOSC Lille favourites for Le Mans – LOSC Lille, at 49%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Le Mans win 24% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and LOSC Lille win 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 0.98 goals for Le Mans and 1.51 for LOSC Lille, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 49%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 0.98 for Le Mans, 1.51 for LOSC Lille.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Le Mans wins; above it, LOSC Lille wins.
| Le Mans \ LOSC Lille | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Le Mans goals in rows, LOSC Lille goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Le Mans v LOSC Lille?
LOSC Lille, at 49%. The full split is Le Mans 24%, draw 27%, LOSC Lille 49%.
What is the most likely score in Le Mans v LOSC Lille?
1–1, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Le Mans v LOSC Lille?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 0.98 for Le Mans and 1.51 for LOSC Lille.
Will both teams score in Le Mans v LOSC Lille?
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. Le Mans keep a clean sheet or LOSC Lille fail to score in the remaining 51%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
