Saturday 28 November · 20:45 · 12th matchday
Le Havre – Strasbourg
Le Havre
18th · attack 0.84 · defence 1.27
Strasbourg
13th · attack 1.21 · defence 1.16
Our model makes Strasbourg favourites for Le Havre – Strasbourg, at 45%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Le Havre win 29% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Strasbourg win 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.20 goals for Le Havre and 1.54 for Strasbourg, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.20 for Le Havre, 1.54 for Strasbourg.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Le Havre wins; above it, Strasbourg wins.
| Le Havre \ Strasbourg | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Le Havre goals in rows, Strasbourg goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Le Havre v Strasbourg?
Strasbourg, at 45%. The full split is Le Havre 29%, draw 26%, Strasbourg 45%.
What is the most likely score in Le Havre v Strasbourg?
1–1, which comes up in 12.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Le Havre v Strasbourg?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.20 for Le Havre and 1.54 for Strasbourg.
Will both teams score in Le Havre v Strasbourg?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Le Havre keep a clean sheet or Strasbourg fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
