Sunday 8 November · 17:15 · 10th matchday
Brest – Olympique Lyonnais
Brest
10th · attack 1.11 · defence 1.21
Olympique Lyonnais
1st · attack 1.34 · defence 1.04
Our model makes Olympique Lyonnais favourites for Brest – Olympique Lyonnais, at 42%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 17:15.
Across the full score distribution, Brest win 33% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Olympique Lyonnais win 42%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.41 goals for Brest and 1.61 for Olympique Lyonnais, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 61%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.41 for Brest, 1.61 for Olympique Lyonnais.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Brest wins; above it, Olympique Lyonnais wins.
| Brest \ Olympique Lyonnais | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Brest goals in rows, Olympique Lyonnais goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Brest v Olympique Lyonnais?
Olympique Lyonnais, at 42%. The full split is Brest 33%, draw 25%, Olympique Lyonnais 42%.
What is the most likely score in Brest v Olympique Lyonnais?
1–1, which comes up in 11.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brest v Olympique Lyonnais?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.41 for Brest and 1.61 for Olympique Lyonnais.
Will both teams score in Brest v Olympique Lyonnais?
Both teams score in 61% of simulations. Brest keep a clean sheet or Olympique Lyonnais fail to score in the remaining 39%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
