Saturday 7 November · 17:15 · 10th matchday
Auxerre – Paris
Auxerre
16th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.20
Paris
6th · attack 1.08 · defence 1.04
Our model makes Paris favourites for Auxerre – Paris, at 38% — but only 4.3% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 17:15.
Across the full score distribution, Auxerre win 34% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Paris win 38%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.20 goals for Auxerre and 1.29 for Paris, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.20 for Auxerre, 1.29 for Paris.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Auxerre wins; above it, Paris wins.
| Auxerre \ Paris | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Auxerre goals in rows, Paris goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Auxerre v Paris?
Paris, at 38%. The full split is Auxerre 34%, draw 28%, Paris 38%.
What is the most likely score in Auxerre v Paris?
1–1, which comes up in 13.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Auxerre v Paris?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.20 for Auxerre and 1.29 for Paris.
Will both teams score in Auxerre v Paris?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Auxerre keep a clean sheet or Paris fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 18 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
