Sunday 29 November · 15:00 · 12th matchday
Auxerre – Olympique Marseille
Auxerre
14th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.22
Olympique Marseille
4th · attack 1.42 · defence 1.03
Our model makes Olympique Marseille favourites for Auxerre – Olympique Marseille, at 50%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Auxerre win 25% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Olympique Marseille win 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.19 goals for Auxerre and 1.74 for Olympique Marseille, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.19 for Auxerre, 1.74 for Olympique Marseille.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Auxerre wins; above it, Olympique Marseille wins.
| Auxerre \ Olympique Marseille | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Auxerre goals in rows, Olympique Marseille goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Auxerre v Olympique Marseille?
Olympique Marseille, at 50%. The full split is Auxerre 25%, draw 25%, Olympique Marseille 50%.
What is the most likely score in Auxerre v Olympique Marseille?
1–1, which comes up in 11.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Auxerre v Olympique Marseille?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.19 for Auxerre and 1.74 for Olympique Marseille.
Will both teams score in Auxerre v Olympique Marseille?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Auxerre keep a clean sheet or Olympique Marseille fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
