Saturday 28 November · 17:15 · 12th matchday
Angers SCO – Lens
Angers SCO
16th · attack 0.75 · defence 1.26
Lens
11th · attack 1.25 · defence 0.92
Our model makes Lens favourites for Angers SCO – Lens, at 54%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 17:15.
Across the full score distribution, Angers SCO win 20% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Lens win 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 13.2% of simulations.
We expect 0.86 goals for Angers SCO and 1.58 for Lens, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 0.86 for Angers SCO, 1.58 for Lens.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Angers SCO wins; above it, Lens wins.
| Angers SCO \ Lens | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Angers SCO goals in rows, Lens goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Angers SCO v Lens?
Lens, at 54%. The full split is Angers SCO 20%, draw 26%, Lens 54%.
What is the most likely score in Angers SCO v Lens?
0–1, which comes up in 13.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Angers SCO v Lens?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 0.86 for Angers SCO and 1.58 for Lens.
Will both teams score in Angers SCO v Lens?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Angers SCO keep a clean sheet or Lens fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
