Monday 19 October · 21:15 · 2nd matchday
Sporting Braga – Gil Vicente
Sporting Braga
8th · attack 1.52 · defence 0.85
Gil Vicente
6th · attack 1.00 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Sporting Braga favourites for Sporting Braga – Gil Vicente, at 61%. Kick-off 19 October 2026, 21:15.
Across the full score distribution, Sporting Braga win 61% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Gil Vicente win 18%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 13.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.80 goals for Sporting Braga and 0.84 for Gil Vicente, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.80 for Sporting Braga, 0.84 for Gil Vicente.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sporting Braga wins; above it, Gil Vicente wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Sporting Braga goals in rows, Gil Vicente goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sporting Braga v Gil Vicente?
Sporting Braga, at 61%. The full split is Sporting Braga 61%, draw 22%, Gil Vicente 18%.
What is the most likely score in Sporting Braga v Gil Vicente?
1–0, which comes up in 13.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sporting Braga v Gil Vicente?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.80 for Sporting Braga and 0.84 for Gil Vicente.
Will both teams score in Sporting Braga v Gil Vicente?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Sporting Braga keep a clean sheet or Gil Vicente fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 10 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
