Sunday 1 November · 21:30 · 10th matchday
Sporting Braga – Famalicão
Sporting Braga
8th · attack 1.52 · defence 0.85
Famalicão
13th · attack 1.07 · defence 0.94
Our model makes Sporting Braga favourites for Sporting Braga – Famalicão, at 57%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 21:30.
Across the full score distribution, Sporting Braga win 57% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Famalicão win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.72 goals for Sporting Braga and 0.91 for Famalicão, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.72 for Sporting Braga, 0.91 for Famalicão.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sporting Braga wins; above it, Famalicão wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Sporting Braga goals in rows, Famalicão goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sporting Braga v Famalicão?
Sporting Braga, at 57%. The full split is Sporting Braga 57%, draw 23%, Famalicão 20%.
What is the most likely score in Sporting Braga v Famalicão?
1–0, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sporting Braga v Famalicão?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.72 for Sporting Braga and 0.91 for Famalicão.
Will both teams score in Sporting Braga v Famalicão?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Sporting Braga keep a clean sheet or Famalicão fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
