Saturday 31 October · 21:30 · 10th matchday
Porto – Estoril
Porto
1st · attack 1.72 · defence 0.60
Estoril
18th · attack 1.15 · defence 1.24
Our model makes Porto favourites for Porto – Estoril, at 78%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 21:30.
Across the full score distribution, Porto win 78% of the time, the draw comes up 14% and Estoril win 8%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 12.8% of simulations.
We expect 2.57 goals for Porto and 0.68 for Estoril, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.57 for Porto, 0.68 for Estoril.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Porto wins; above it, Estoril wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 2 | 1 |
Porto goals in rows, Estoril goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Porto v Estoril?
Porto, at 78%. The full split is Porto 78%, draw 14%, Estoril 8%.
What is the most likely score in Porto v Estoril?
2–0, which comes up in 12.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Porto v Estoril?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 2.57 for Porto and 0.68 for Estoril.
Will both teams score in Porto v Estoril?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Porto keep a clean sheet or Estoril fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
