Saturday 31 October · 16:30 · 10th matchday
Moreirense – Estrela Amadora
Moreirense
12th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.12
Estrela Amadora
9th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.25
Our model makes Moreirense favourites for Moreirense – Estrela Amadora, at 48%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 16:30.
Across the full score distribution, Moreirense win 48% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Estrela Amadora win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.45 goals for Moreirense and 1.01 for Estrela Amadora, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.45 for Moreirense, 1.01 for Estrela Amadora.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Moreirense wins; above it, Estrela Amadora wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Moreirense goals in rows, Estrela Amadora goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Moreirense v Estrela Amadora?
Moreirense, at 48%. The full split is Moreirense 48%, draw 25%, Estrela Amadora 27%.
What is the most likely score in Moreirense v Estrela Amadora?
1–0, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Moreirense v Estrela Amadora?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 70% of the time. Expected goals are 1.45 for Moreirense and 1.01 for Estrela Amadora.
Will both teams score in Moreirense v Estrela Amadora?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Moreirense keep a clean sheet or Estrela Amadora fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
